The Canadian political system in disarray
(A friend asked me to write a post explaining the possible outcomes of the upcoming federal general election.)
No matter the results from the upcoming election, the upcoming Canadian government will be weak and unstable.
Electoral reform may eventually be necessary in order to break the gridlock that will define the Canadian Parliament for the forseeable future. If not electoral reform, then at least a structural change in Canadian politics that will put less emphasis on party identification.
There are a number of possible scenarios that might come about from the vote in January, all of which are not pretty.
Scenario 1) Liberals win a plurality of seats, let's say that number is 115, the Conservatives win 105, the NDP wins 25 and the Bloc wins 63. What happens here? Even if the NDP were to support the Liberals, there would be no working majority in the House. The only possible working scenario would be an explicit partnership between the Bloc and the Conservatives. Both the Bloc and the Conservatives will almost certainly never be able to support the governing Liberals into the near to medium range future, but could they support each other?
Scenario 2) Conservatives win a minority. Let's say they win 130 seats, the Liberals win 90, the NDP wins 25, and the Bloc wins 63. This scenario is perhaps the best possible one for Conservatives. They can only be defeated in this case if the Bloc vote to bring them down. The Bloc can simply abstain on budgetary matters, allowing the Conservatives to stay in power. It would be hard for them to justify voting out the Conservatives since they would then be likely replaced by the Liberals.
Scenario 3) Conservatives win a plurality of seats. Let's say they win 115 and the Liberals win 105. The NDP could win 25 and the Bloc once again wins 63. In this scenario, the Liberals and NDP would not have a working majority, but they would still outnumber the Conservatives, requiring EXPLICIT instead of implicit Bloc support on confidence matters - Not pretty.
Scenario 4) Somehow, someway, the Liberals maintain their 135 or so seats, and the NDP gains a few as well. I don't see this as possible. The Bloc is almost certain to make further inroads in Quebec, and therefore I can't imagine the Conservatives dropping by 10 or so seats. The Conservatives at the very least, will likely maintain their seat numbers and will therefore form the majority of the house along with the Bloc.
What is the problem in all 4 of these scenarios? The Bloc Quebecois. Quebec still makes up a little less than one quarter of the seats in the Canadian Parliament. By not allowing either of the two competitive options to win seats in that province, Canadian parliaments into the future will likely continue to result in stalemates.
No matter the results from the upcoming election, the upcoming Canadian government will be weak and unstable.
Electoral reform may eventually be necessary in order to break the gridlock that will define the Canadian Parliament for the forseeable future. If not electoral reform, then at least a structural change in Canadian politics that will put less emphasis on party identification.
There are a number of possible scenarios that might come about from the vote in January, all of which are not pretty.
Scenario 1) Liberals win a plurality of seats, let's say that number is 115, the Conservatives win 105, the NDP wins 25 and the Bloc wins 63. What happens here? Even if the NDP were to support the Liberals, there would be no working majority in the House. The only possible working scenario would be an explicit partnership between the Bloc and the Conservatives. Both the Bloc and the Conservatives will almost certainly never be able to support the governing Liberals into the near to medium range future, but could they support each other?
Scenario 2) Conservatives win a minority. Let's say they win 130 seats, the Liberals win 90, the NDP wins 25, and the Bloc wins 63. This scenario is perhaps the best possible one for Conservatives. They can only be defeated in this case if the Bloc vote to bring them down. The Bloc can simply abstain on budgetary matters, allowing the Conservatives to stay in power. It would be hard for them to justify voting out the Conservatives since they would then be likely replaced by the Liberals.
Scenario 3) Conservatives win a plurality of seats. Let's say they win 115 and the Liberals win 105. The NDP could win 25 and the Bloc once again wins 63. In this scenario, the Liberals and NDP would not have a working majority, but they would still outnumber the Conservatives, requiring EXPLICIT instead of implicit Bloc support on confidence matters - Not pretty.
Scenario 4) Somehow, someway, the Liberals maintain their 135 or so seats, and the NDP gains a few as well. I don't see this as possible. The Bloc is almost certain to make further inroads in Quebec, and therefore I can't imagine the Conservatives dropping by 10 or so seats. The Conservatives at the very least, will likely maintain their seat numbers and will therefore form the majority of the house along with the Bloc.
What is the problem in all 4 of these scenarios? The Bloc Quebecois. Quebec still makes up a little less than one quarter of the seats in the Canadian Parliament. By not allowing either of the two competitive options to win seats in that province, Canadian parliaments into the future will likely continue to result in stalemates.
posted by Japnaam Singh at
6:44 PM
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